The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global Balance of Power
Perang Russia-Ukraine dan Keseimbangan Kuasa Dunia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47548/ijistra.2024.82Keywords:
Russia, Ukraine, US, NATO, Geopolitics, GeoeconomicsAbstract
This study examines the geopolitics and geoeconomics implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global balance of power. It investigates the impacts of the war on the global economy particularly the trade relations between emerging global powers and global demand for Russian, US and Chinese currencies. It also inspects NATO’s ability to fulfil its purpose in the light of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. The study finds that the Russia-Ukraine war demonstrates signs of the world's political changes towards the formation of a multipolar international system. A comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the global balance of power can help to guide strategic response in safeguarding national interests amid global power competition.
Kajian ini meneliti implikasi geopolitik dan geoekonomi perang Russia-Ukraine terhadap keseimbangan kuasa dunia. Ia menyelidik kesan-kesan perang ini terhadap ekonomi antarabangsa terutamanya hubungan perdagangan antara kuasa-kuasa dunia baharu serta permintaan global terhadap matawang Rusia, Amerika Syarikat dan China. Kajian ini juga menilai keupayaan NATO untuk memenuhi tujuannya tatkala Russia mencerobohi Ukraine. Kajian ini mendapati perang Rusia-Ukraine menunjukkan tanda-tanda perubahan politik dunia ke arah pembentukan sistem antarabangsa multipolar. Kefahaman yang menyeluruh mengenai dinamika keseimbangan kuasa global penting untuk memandu tindak balas strategik dalam menjaga kepentingan nasional di tengah-tengah persaingan kuasa dunia.
Downloads
References
Adinolfi, J. (2022, May 31). Yuan-ruble trading explodes 1,000% in latest challenge to U.S. dollar’s dominance. MSN. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/yuan-ruble-trading-explodes-1000-25-in-latest-challenge-to-us-dollar-e2-80-99s-dominance/ar-AAXVErj?fromMaestro=true
Al Arabiya English. (2022, April 9). Russia calls for integrating BRICS payment systems. https://english.alarabiya.net/business/banking-and-finance/2022/04/09/Russia-calls-for-integrating-BRICS-payment-systems
Arslanalp, S., & Simpson-Bell, C. (2022, May 5). US Dollar Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Drops to 25-Year Low. Https://Blogs.Imf.Org/2021/05/05/Us-Dollar-Share-of-Global-Foreign-Exchange-Reserves-Drops-to-25-Year-Low/. https://blogs.imf.org/2021/05/05/us-dollar-share-of-global-foreign-exchange-reserves-drops-to-25-year-low/
Åslund, A. (2022, June 1). Russia’s war on global food security. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/russias-war-on-global-food-security/
Atlantic Council. (2022, February). Global Strategy 2022: Thwarting Kremlin aggression today for constructive relations tomorrow. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Global-Strategy-2022-Thwarting-Kremlin-aggression-today-for-constructive-relations-tomorrow-February-2022-Final-1.pdf
Balbi, D. (2022, April 5). Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Straining the World’s Wheat Supply. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-04-05/big-take-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-strains-global-wheat-supply
Bermingham, F. (2014, September 5). Nato Summit 2014: Nato to Supply Precision-Guided Weapons to Ukraine. International Business Times UK. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nato-summit-2014-nato-members-provide-precision-guided-weapons-ukraine-1464067
Blackwell, E. (2022, February 3). Putin, Facing Sanction Threats, Has Been Saving for This Day. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/world/europe/putin-sanctions-proofing.html
Bochkov, D. (2022, March 27). Amid the Ukraine Crisis, China-Russia Economic Relations Remain Lukewarm. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/amid-the-ukraine-crisis-china-russia-economic-relations-remain-lukewarm/
Boffey, D., Michaelson, R., Koshiw Andrew Roth, I., & Roth, A. (2022, July 22). Ukraine and Russia sign UN-backed deal to restart grain exports. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/22/ukraine-russia-sign-un-backed-deal-restart-grain-exports
Caldara, D. (2022, May 27). The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation. Federal Reserve. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-effect-of-the-war-in-ukraine-on-global-activity-and-inflation-20220527.html
Casert, R. (2022, July 5). NATO nations sign accession protocols for Sweden, Finland. AP NEWS. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-turkey-sweden-169a0386e3f6016da0b519b265645575
Cassidy, J. (2022, March 14). How Big a Threat to the U.S. Economy Is the War in Ukraine? The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-big-a-threat-to-the-us-economy-is-the-war-in-ukraine
CNBC. (2022, July 19). Russia is seeking oil payments from India in UAE dirhams: Reuters, citing sources and document. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/russia-is-seeking-oil-payments-from-india-in-uae-dirhams-reuters.html
Collins, K. (2022, May 21). Biden signs $40 billion aid package to Ukraine while in Seoul - CNNPolitics. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/21/politics/biden-signs-ukraine-bill/index.html
Covert Geopolitics. (2022, July 15). Three More Countries Set to Join BRICS. https://geopolitics.co/2022/07/14/three-more-countries-set-to-join-brics/
Davis, J. S., & Patel, K. (2023). Russian Ruble buckles under trade sanctions, declining export earnings. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010
Deloitte. (2022). CFO SignalsTM: 2Q 2022. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/finance/articles/cfo-signals-2q-2022.html
Dizikes, P. (2023, September 26). Q&A: The BRICS expansion and the global balance of power. MIT News. https://news.mit.edu/2023/taylor-fravel-brics-expansion-0926
Durisin, M., Parija, P., & Anghel, I. (2022, April 5). The $120 Billion Global Grain Trade Is Being Redrawn by Russia’s War in Ukraine. BNN Bloomberg. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-120-billion-global-grain-trade-is-being-redrawn-by-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-1.1747725
Ellyatt, H. (2022a, April 21). From soaring food prices to social unrest, the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war could be immense. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/21/from-food-to-inflation-the-russia-ukraine-war-has-a-global-impact.html
Ellyatt, H. (2022b, April 2). Russia and the West are battling to get China and India to take their sides in the Ukraine war. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/russia-and-the-west-battle-to-get-china-and-india-on-side-in-the-war.html
Evans, S. (2022, April 3). China seeks alternative import payments as sanctions around Russian oil tighten. Offshore Technology. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/china-seeks-alternative-import-payments-as-sanctions-around-russian-oil-tighten/
Feldscher, J. (2022, May 26). World Leaders Tout Self-Reliance Amid Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Defense One. https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/05/world-leaders-tout-self-reliance-amid-russias-invasion-ukraine/367474/
Finkel, E., Azarieva, J., & Brudny, Y. (2022, February 25). Western sanctions don’t harm Putin — they strengthen him. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/595776-western-sanctions-dont-harm-putin-they-strengthen-him/
Global Defense Corps. (2022, April 17). Sweden and Finland to Join NATO Soon, Prompted by Russian Aggression. https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2022/04/17/sweden-and-finland-to-join-nato-soon-prompted-by-russian-aggression/
Glover, G. (2022, June 24). Russia and China are brewing up a challenge to dollar dominance by creating a new reserve currency. Markets Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-russia-china-rouble-yuan-brics-reserve-currency-imf-2022-6?op=1
Greene, R. (2022, March 4). How Sanctions on Russia Will Alter Global Payments Flows. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/04/how-sanctions-on-russia-will-alter-global-payments-flows-pub-86575
Hess, M. (2022, April 12). The Russian threat to dollar hegemony is nothing but a fantasy. Business and Economy | Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/4/12/the-russian-threat-to-dollar-hegemony-is-nothing-but-a-fantasy
Huang, E. (2022, March 15). China’s digital yuan could challenge the dollar in international trade this decade, fintech expert predicts. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/can-chinas-digital-yuan-reduce-the-dollars-use-in-international-trade.html
Hussin, R. (2022, April 6). Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Russia and the Future of the Dollar. EMIR Research. https://www.emirresearch.com/petrodollar-warfare-oil-russia-and-the-future-of-the-dollar/
IMF. (2023). Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). https://data.imf.org/?sk=e6a5f467-c14b-4aa8-9f6d-5a09ec4e62a4
Intellinews. (2022, June 22). China, India overtake Germany as Russia’s biggest buyer of crude oil. Bne Intellinews. https://www.intellinews.com/china-india-overtake-germany-as-russia-s-biggest-buyer-of-crude-oil-248292/
International Crisis Group. (2022). 7 Priorities for the G7: Managing the Global Fallout of Russia’s War on Ukraine. Crisis Group Special Briefing No 7, 22 June 2022. International Crisis Group. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep41963
JP Morgan. (2023). De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? JP Morgan. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/currencies/de-dollarization
Kaczmarski, M. (2022). The war in Ukraine and the future of Russia-China relations. NATO Defense College. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep40454
Kim, L. (2019, December 18). How U.S. Military Aid Has Helped Ukraine Since 2014. NPR.Org. https://www.npr.org/2019/12/18/788874844/how-u-s-military-aid-has-helped-ukraine-since-2014
Krauss, C., Stevenson, A., & Schmall, E. (2022, June 24). In Russia’s War, China and India Emerge as Financiers | Blog | ESAI News + Views. ESAI Energy. https://www.esaienergy.com/post/in-russias-war-china-and-india-emerge-as-financiers
Krein, J. (2022, March 22). The End of Dollar Hegemony? American Affairs Journal. https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2022/03/the-end-of-dollar-hegemony/
Kurlantzick, J. (2022, April 7). Russia’s Ties to Southeast Asia and How They Affect the Ukraine War: Part 3, Singapore and Vietnam. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/blog/russias-ties-southeast-asia-and-how-they-affect-ukraine-war-part-3-singapore-and-vietnam
Lau, Y. (2022, July 16). Why hasn’t the Russian economy tanked yet? Putin has been preparing for this moment for years. Yahoo! Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-hasn-t-russian-economy-090000719.html
Liakos, C., & Chernova, A. (2022, June 22). Putin says Russia is rerouting trade to China and India. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/22/energy/russia-oil-exports-brics/index.html
Liu, Z. Z. (2022, March 11). Besides China, Putin Has Another Potential De-dollarization Partner in Asia. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/blog/besides-china-putin-has-another-potential-de-dollarization-partner-asia
Lossan, A. (2020, September 4). Why are Russia and China ditching the U.S. dollar? Russia Beyond. https://www.rbth.com/business/332673-russia-china-us-dollar-america
Lu, C., Gramer, R., & Pezeshki, A. (2022, March 2). Forget Oil. Putin’s War Is Wrecking the Wheat Market. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/02/russia-war-wheat-economy-food-security/
Luce, J. (2023, October 5). The invasion of Ukraine revived NATO. Is it enough? WAR ROOM. https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/ukraine-revived-nato/#sidr-nav
Mazarr, M. J., (2022). Understanding Competition: Great Power Rivalry in a Changing International Order — Concepts and Theories, Perspectives. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/PEA1404-1
McCarthy, S. (2022, June 23). BRICS: China’s Xi Jinping blasts Western sanctions for “weaponizing” world economy. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/asia/xi-jinping-brics-summit-china-russia-sanctions-economy-intl-hnk/index.html
McGleenon, B. (2022, March 7). Has yuan become Russia’s new dollar? Yahoo! Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yuan-become-russia-new-dollar-us-europe-sanctions-ukraine-war-080909694.html
Mclean, C. (2022, March 16). Senator says US moral leadership on the line with Russia-Ukraine war. The Hill. https://thehill.com/policy/international/598498-senator-says-us-moral-leadership-on-the-line-with-russia-ukraine-war/
MercoPress. (2022, June 29). Russia endorses Argentine, Iran joining BRICS. MercoPress. https://en.mercopress.com/2022/06/29/russia-endorses-argentine-iran-joining-brics
Mihailov, A. (2022, April 5). Why Russia has put the ruble on a gold standard – but it’s unlikely to last. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/why-russia-has-put-the-rouble-on-a-gold-standard-but-its-unlikely-to-last-180632
Moak, K. (2022, March 31). Can the yuan be a key world reserve currency? Asia Times. https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/can-the-yuan-be-a-key-world-reserve-currency/
Monaghan, S., & Wall, C. (2022, July 1). What Happened at NATO’s Madrid Summit? Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-happened-natos-madrid-summit
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (2021). NATO 2030 [Fact sheet]. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2021/6/pdf/2106-factsheet-nato2030-en.pdf
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2022, June). NATO 2022 Strategic Concept. https://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/
Norton, B. (2022, April 1). IMF admits US dollar hegemony declining, due to rise of Chinese yuan, sanctions on Russia. Multipolarista. https://multipolarista.com/2022/03/31/imf-us-dollar-decline-china-russia/
O’Connor, T. (2022, July 1). As NATO Grows, China and Russia Seek to Bring Iran, Saudi Arabia Into Fold. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/nato-grows-china-russia-seek-bring-iran-saudi-arabia-fold-1720780
O’Donnell, J. (2022, May 26). Analysis: Russia prepares to seize western firms looking to leave. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-prepares-seize-western-firms-looking-leave-2022-05-26/
Patel, D. (2022, March 29). How sanctions on Russia and the invasion of Ukraine affect the U.S. economy. Penn Today. https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/how-sanctions-russia-and-invasion-ukraine-affect-us-economy
Pathi, K., & Kurtenbach, E. (2022, June 13). India and China increasingly welcome shunned Russian oil. PBS NewsHour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/india-and-china-increasingly-welcome-shunned-russian-oil
Pladson, K. (2022, March 16). What happens if Russia takes over Western companies’ stores and factories? Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/what-happens-if-russia-takes-over-western-companies-stores-and-factories/a-61148695
Rai, S., & Lane, S. (2022, February 28). Five ways the Russian invasion of Ukraine could impact the US economy. The Hill. https://thehill.com/policy/finance/596203-five-ways-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-could-impact-americans/
Redman, J. (2022, July 25). Targeting the US Dollar’s Hegemony: Russia, China, and BRICS Nations Plan to Craft a New International Reserve Currency. Bitcoin News. https://news.bitcoin.com/targeting-the-us-dollars-hegemony-russia-china-and-brics-nations-plan-to-craft-a-new-international-reserve-currency/
Reuters. (2022a, May 30). Russian-controlled Kherson region in Ukraine starts grain exports to Russia - TASS. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/pro-moscow-kherson-region-starts-grain-exports-russia-tass-2022-05-30/
Reuters. (2022b, May 12). Putin says large Russian grain harvest to support higher exports. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/putin-says-large-russian-grain-harvest-support-higher-exports-2022-05-12/
Reuters. (2022c, June 23). Russia diverts trade, oil to BRICS nations: Putin. Business Today. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/russia-diverts-trade-oil-to-brics-nations-putin-338786-2022-06-23
Reuters. (2022d, July 19). Iran and Russia’s Gazprom sign primary deal for energy cooperation. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-russias-gazprom-sign-primary-deal-energy-cooperation-2022-07-19/
Reuters. (2022e, June 2). Sweden to supply more military aid including anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-supply-more-military-aid-including-anti-ship-missiles-ukraine-2022-06-02/
Reuters. (2022f, May 28). Ukraine receives Harpoon missiles and howitzers, says defence minister. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-receives-harpoon-missiles-howitzers-says-defence-minister-2022-05-28/
Reuters. (2022g, March 23). UK to provide 6,000 missiles to Ukraine in new support. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-provide-6000-missiles-ukraine-new-support-2022-03-23/
Robertson, H. (2022, July 4). China’s yuan is making headway a global reserve currency, with 85% of central banks keen on holding the asset. Business Insider India. https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/chinas-yuan-is-making-headway-a-global-reserve-currency-with-85-of-central-banks-keen-on-holding-the-asset/articleshow/92652273.cms
Rosen, P. (2022, March 19). An economist explains why Saudi Arabia and China are looking to ditch the dollar in a new oil deal — and where Beijing could target next as it spreads yuan adoption. Markets Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-yuan-china-russia-saudi-arabia-reserve-currency-oil-deal-2022-3?op=1
RT. (2022, April 2). Gold-backed Ruble could be a game-changer (INTERVIEW). RT International. https://www.rt.com/business/553099-gold-backed-ruble-gamechanger-west/
Sabbagh, D. (2022, June 6). UK to send long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine despite Russian threats. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/06/uk-to-send-long-range-rocket-artillery-to-ukraine-despite-russian-threats
Shalal, A. (2022, June 27). G7 aims to raise $600 billion to counter China’s Belt and Road. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/refile-us-aims-raise-200-bln-part-g7-rival-chinas-belt-road-2022-06-26/
Shankar, P. (2022, March 9). What India’s position on Russia-Ukraine war means for its EU ties. Russia-Ukraine War News | Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/what-india-position-russia-ukraine-war-means-european-union-ties
Song, B. K. W. A. W. (2022, April 14). Ukraine war: What support is China offering Russia? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253
Srivastava, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2022, April 29). Russia Offers Dual-Payment Plan for Oil, Other Trade With India. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/russia-offers-dual-payment-plan-for-oil-other-trade-with-india
Surwillo, I., & Slakaityte, V. (2022). War in Ukraine will have high costs for the European energy sector. DIIS Policy Brief March 2022. Danish Institute for International Studies.
Tan, H. (2022a, April 29). China and Russia are working on homegrown alternatives to the SWIFT payment system. Here’s what they would mean for the US dollar. Yahoo! News. https://www.yahoo.com/gma/china-russia-working-homegrown-alternatives-031746969.html
Tan, H. (2022b, June 14). China and India now account for about 50% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports, as Asian demand props up Moscow’s energy revenues. Markets Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-india-half-russia-crude-oil-exports-sanctions-2022-6?op=1
The White House (2021). FACT SHEET: NATO Summit: Revitalizing the Transatlantic Alliance [Fact sheet]. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/13/fact-sheet-nato-summit-revitalizing-the-transatlantic-alliance/
The White House (2022). FACT SHEET: The 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid [Fact sheet]. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/29/fact-sheet-the-2022-nato-summit-in-madrid/
Tilles, D. (2022, July 12). Biden announces permanent US military base in Poland, America’s first on NATO east flank. Notes From Poland. https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/06/29/biden-announces-permanent-us-military-base-in-poland-americas-first-on-nato-east-flank/
TN World Desk. (2022, July 13). Russia-Ukraine War: United States announces additional USD 1.7 billion aid to Ukraine. TimesNow. https://www.timesnownews.com/world/russia-ukraine-war-united-states-announces-additional-usd-1-7-billion-aid-to-ukraine-article-92837413
Trompiz, G., & Hunt, N. (2022, March 3). Analysis: Russia-Ukraine conflict highlights wheat supply vulnerability. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-ukraine-conflict-highlights-wheat-supply-vulnerability-2022-03-03/
UN. (2023, January 4). Ukraine: FAO and EU in $15.5 million bid to avert food crisis threat. UN News. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/01/1132162
U.S. Department of Defense. (2019, June 18). DOD Announces $250M to Ukraine [Press release]. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/1879340/dod-announces-250m-to-ukraine/
U.S. Department of Defense. (2022, June 29). FACT SHEET - U.S. Defense Contributions to Europe [Press release]. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3078056/fact-sheet-us-defense-contributions-to-europe/
Valentine, A. (2022, July 1). Are sanctions actually hurting Russia’s economy? Here’s what you need to know. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actually-hurting-russias-economy-heres-what-you-need-to-know
Wheatley, J., & Smith, C. (2022, March 31). Russia sanctions threaten to chip away at dominance of US dollar, says IMF. Financial Times. https://archive.ph/YPu30#selection-1519.0-1519.74
Wilson, J. (2022, May 30). NATO looks to “historic” Madrid summit, with Sweden, Finland. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/nato-historic-madrid-summit-sweden-finland-85065376
Winck, B. (2022, April 19). China and India are saving Russia from economic collapse. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-saving-russia-economic-collapse-oil-gas-markets-imports-2022-4?international=true&r=US&IR=T
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
